FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons are preparing to face the Buffalo Bills on Monday night in a matchup that could be one of the highlights of Week 6. The Bills, considered by many as one of the league’s top teams, have shown strong performances this season, including a notable comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens and several double-digit victories.
The Falcons had a bye during Week 5, while the Bills suffered their first defeat of the season to the New England Patriots. This loss gives Atlanta insight into how to approach Buffalo and provides added motivation for the Bills to avoid consecutive losses—a rare occurrence for them under quarterback Josh Allen. Since 2019, Buffalo has won 20 out of 26 games following a loss.
To secure a win, Atlanta will need to address several key areas.
Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich commented on Josh Allen’s impact: “He’s going to challenge our guys’ discipline as far as the way we rush him. He’s going to challenge us on the back end, the way he throws the ball,” Ulbrich said. “He’s surrounded with a skill group now that’s better than he’s had, in my opinion, in the last couple of years, so that’s a problem as well. And when they get the run game going and they got everything popping, it can make it a very difficult task. So, we’re going to have to play our best football.”
One challenge will be limiting Buffalo’s explosive plays. The Bills have produced an explosive play—defined as a pass gaining at least 16 yards or a run gaining at least 12 yards—on 12% of their offensive snaps this season, ranking ninth in the league. They have recorded 28 explosive pass plays and 11 explosive run plays so far.
Allen’s ability to extend plays and his arm strength allow Buffalo to attack defenses in multiple ways. To counter this, Atlanta may consider using a spy defender on Allen rather than relying heavily on blitzes, especially since Buffalo has one of the NFL’s top pass-blocking offensive lines.
In their loss to New England, Buffalo was limited to earning most of their explosive plays through off-script moments. Forcing Buffalo to work for every yard could increase opportunities for Atlanta’s defense to create turnovers or force punts—key factors in New England’s upset victory.
Another strategy for Atlanta involves scoring enough points to force Buffalo into passing more often and reducing their reliance on the run game. As teams fall behind on the scoreboard, they tend to shift toward passing plays due to time constraints. This can make offenses more predictable and lead to turnovers.
Both teams excel at controlling possession time; Buffalo and Atlanta rank first and second in time of possession this year. The Bills have forced 30 missed tackles on running plays and lead the league with 561 yards after contact. They also rank highly in rushing yards over expectation and have generated significant yardage after catches.
On defense, Atlanta has missed only 17 tackles this year—the fourth fewest in the league—according to Next Gen Stats. This sound tackling will be crucial in preventing Buffalo from generating big plays after initial contact.
Offensively, Atlanta is among the best at creating extra yardage through missed tackles, with running back Bijan Robinson standing out for his ability to gain significant yards after initial contact. The Bills have allowed an average of 6.7 yards after missed tackles—the fourth-highest mark in the league—while Robinson has averaged 7.3 yards after missed tackles this season.
Red zone efficiency will be another deciding factor. Atlanta has scored touchdowns on just 46% of its red zone trips, one of the lowest rates in the league, while Buffalo’s defense has allowed touchdowns on 60% of opponents’ red zone possessions—about average for the NFL. When Atlanta played Washington earlier this year, they converted four out of six red zone trips into touchdowns and scored a season-high 34 points.
If Monday’s game becomes high-scoring, as some expect, capitalizing on red zone opportunities will be essential for Atlanta to keep pace with Buffalo’s offense. The Falcons may seek big plays downfield but must also find ways to finish drives inside the 20-yard line against a tough Bills defense that has given up few explosive passes this year.
