Since their loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, the Atlanta Falcons have struggled with third-down conversions, failing to reach a 40% success rate in any game since then. The team managed to surpass 30% twice but otherwise has been at or below 25%. This includes a game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10 where they failed to convert any third downs and a recent performance of just one conversion out of thirteen attempts against the Seattle Seahawks.
Heading into their Thursday night rematch with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Week 15, Atlanta’s third-down offense ranks near the bottom of the league at 31st, with a conversion rate of 31%.
Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson addressed these challenges. “That’s the most disappointing part of our offense, is the third down,” Robinson said. “We started off the season kind of not playing that well in the red zone; we were playing well on third down. Then, obviously, it just has not gone well in terms of third down.”
While third-down efficiency has declined, Atlanta’s red-zone performance has improved significantly. From Weeks 1-7, they were tied for 29th with a red-zone touchdown rate of 44.4%, but from Weeks 8-14 they rose to third place with a rate of 70%. Conversely, their third-down conversion dropped from ninth place at 42.3% during Weeks 1-7 to 31st at just 22.7% over Weeks 8-14.
Robinson expressed frustration about this trend given his background focusing on third-down play while coaching quarterbacks and serving as an assistant coach for the Los Angeles Rams between 2019 and 2023. “So, for it not to be going down the way that you’re hoping,” Robinson said, “it’s very frustrating.”
During Robinson’s tenure with the Rams, their offense ranked between seventh and eighteenth in NFL third-down conversion rates each year from 2019 through 2023. After joining Atlanta as offensive coordinator in 2024, he helped guide them to a middle-of-the-pack finish—17th—with a conversion rate of just over 39%.
In comparison across the league this season, Green Bay leads all teams with a third-down conversion rate above fifty percent while only Tennessee ranks lower than Atlanta.
With four games left on their schedule, Atlanta is aiming to improve its standing before season’s end.
“Number of things that go into it,” Robinson said. “First and foremost is always going to be the protection on third down. You got to make sure that you have sound protection. You got to make sure that we’re IDing things properly, we’re getting to the right people. I think we can be a lot cleaner in that area, just from an upfront standpoint.
“Then, a lot of it is just execution of the call based on the coverage. There’s a number of different coverages that you see, so you got to have sound answers. I think we’ve had opportunities to execute. There’s certainly times throughout the game where I say, ‘I mean, that wasn’t a great play call there.’ So, it’s always going to be a combination of everything. But there’s typically answers out there. You got to find them.”
